On today's episode of the 5 Things podcast: President Joe Biden says he would not consider backing a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war until hostages are released. USA TODAY Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page breaks down new polling data a year out from the 2024 election. Michael Cohen will face off with former President Donald Trump at his New York fraud trial. USA TODAY Congress, Campaigns and Democracy Reporter Ken Tran has an update on House Republicans' push for a new speaker of the House. Only two Republicans running for speaker voted to certify the 2020 election. The world's oldest known dog has died.
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Taylor Wilson:
Good morning. I'm Taylor Wilson, and this is 5 Things you need to know Tuesday, the 24th of October 2023.
Today, Hamas releases more hostages, plus, we dive into some new polling data a year out from the election, and House Republicans try for another speaker vote.
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Hamas has released two more hostages, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. The newly-freed hostages, both Israeli women, went out through the Rafah crossing in Gaza into Egypt, where television footage showed them ushered into ambulances. The news came as the US urges Israel to delay a ground offensive in Gaza in order to encourage continued negotiations that could free dozens of dual citizenship hostages.
President Joe Biden said yesterday that he would not consider backing a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war until all hostages kidnapped by Hamas earlier this month are released. In call a yesterday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden also emphasized the need for a continuous flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The UN's Palestinian refugee agency confirmed that 20 trucks carrying aid arrived in Gaza yesterday. It was the third day in a row such a convoy reached the territory. But relief agencies say a much larger influx of necessities like food, water, and medicine is required. Fuel is also running low.
Israel has intensified its air campaign in recent days. Its officials cited strikes on what they called 320 militant targets in Gaza over the past 24 hours. The Hamas-run health ministry reported 436 deaths in the past day. Israeli officials say more than 1400 people have died in Israel in this month's war, mostly during an initial Hamas attack on October 7th. The Hamas-run health ministry says more than 5000 Palestinians have died, including some 2000 children.
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We're about a year out from the presidential election and President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied in a potential rematch, according to a new exclusive USA Today Suffolk University poll. I caught up with USA Today Washington Bureau chief, Susan Page, about that and more of the poll's findings. Susan, thanks for hopping on 5 Things.
Susan Page:
Hey, it's always my pleasure.
Taylor Wilson:
Let's just start here, Susan. What are the latest poll numbers? Tell us about where Democratic and Republican voters stand respectively for their party's potential nominee.
Susan Page:
It couldn't be clear who the likely nominees are going to be. It's likely to be Joe Biden who has no serious opposition. For the Democratic nomination it's very likely to be Donald Trump who has simply solidified his position in the last four months, now 58% of the support of likely Republican primary voters. So that's how things look now. You see some movement for the top challenger to Donald Trump. Nikki Haley is coming up. Ron DeSantis is crashing, but Trump is still the guy to beat.
Taylor Wilson:
And there appears to be a virtual tie between Trump and Biden for a possible general election rematch. What did we learn in this latest polling?
Susan Page:
A perfect tie, 37-37 Biden and Trump in a general election, and that's in part because of these independent candidacies we're seeing, especially Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He gets 13% in our poll. That's pretty healthy. Now you'd think somebody named Kennedy would be drawing from the Democratic nominee, not so. RFK Jr. drawing disproportionately from Trump. In fact, if RFK Jr. weren't in this race, wasn't on this poll, Trump would have a narrow lead over Biden.
Taylor Wilson:
Susan, you also wrote about an enthusiasm gap between Biden and Trump. Just how stark a difference did the polling reveal here?
Susan Page:
Boy, it's pretty different. We see a majority, for instance, of Republicans saying they are number 10 when it comes to enthusiasm for Trump. That's as high as you can go, but only 17% of Democrats put themselves at number 10 in terms of enthusiasm for Joe Biden. And you see that in a lot of other demographic groups too. They may be tied, but Trump supporters are much more enthusiastic about supporting him than Biden's supporters are, at least at this point.
Taylor Wilson:
And moving away from presidential candidates, we also have polling data on American's foreign policy views. Susan, how do Americans feel about the Israel Hamas and Ukraine wars? And more broadly, how do they feel about the US leadership role abroad?
Susan Page:
Well, we found that a majority of Americans support sending more military aid to Ukraine, support sending more military aid to Israel. But when you go beyond that and ask what about the US role in the world, we find a pretty stark divide. Americans are almost evenly split between those who feel it is crucial for the United States to take a leadership role around the globe and those who say it's time for the United States to step back and deal with our own problems here at home. That's a debate that goes back to the founding of our country. But it is one that has ebbs and flows and it's certainly center stage now as we find world crises in the Middle East, in Asia with the rise of China, in Europe with the Ukraine-Russia war.
Taylor Wilson:
And finally, Susan, the House remains in this kind of limbo without a speaker. What are Americans saying about this ongoing saga?
Susan Page:
"Cut it out." They're saying, "We've seen enough of this endless and fruitless effort to elect a new speaker of the House," an unprecedented situation now going into its third week. And we find it overwhelmingly. Democrats, Republicans and Independents say it's time for them to elect a speaker and go on to doing the business of the government.
Taylor Wilson:
All right, Susan Page, thanks for putting these numbers in context for us. Really appreciate it.
Susan Page:
You're welcome.
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Taylor Wilson:
Michael Cohen, a former personal lawyer and fixer for Donald Trump will confront Trump face-to-face today during testimony at the former president's New York trial for civil fraud. Cohen previously went to prison in part for arranging hush money payments for Trump to a porn actress and a former Playboy model, which are still at the heart of a pending criminal case against Trump. Cohen previously testified before Congress in 2019 that Trump inflated property values to secure loans and insurance. Now Cohen will bring his insider perspective of the Trump organization to a trial where a judge has already ruled that Trump committed fraud for years and ordered the cancellation of Trump's business certificates, though an appeals court has put the impact of that decision on hold while the case is argued.
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House Republicans will try for yet another vote this week to determine the next speaker of the House. Eight Republicans are running for the position, but we still have little sense who might win out. I caught up with USA Today Congress, Campaigns and Democracy reporter, Ken Tran, for the latest. Ken, always good to check in with you.
Ken Tran:
Thanks for having me.
Taylor Wilson:
Ken, can you just refresh us on what's happened so far with these failed speaker votes?
Ken Tran:
House Republicans are in their third week without a speaker. The latest updates so far is that House Republicans decided behind closed doors to drop House Judiciary Chair Congressman Jim Jordan from Ohio as their speaker nominee. Heading into the third week, House Republicans are going to huddle behind closed doors once again to decide on another nominee. There's eight candidates this time around gunning for the nomination.
Taylor Wilson:
Yeah. And what exactly can we expect for this third vote this weekend?
Ken Tran:
We frankly don't know what to expect as we have for the last speaker elections. Anyone who does win the metro nomination, it's up in the air whether or not they can get the 217 votes they need to become speaker. That means they'll need near unanimous support from House Republicans. There are 221 House Republicans that can vote, so they can only afford to lose four votes assuming that all members are present, and that's a tall task for anyone in the conference.
Taylor Wilson:
Eight Republican lawmakers are vying for the nomination at this point, Ken. Do you have any sense in your conversations there in Washington of who might be the favorite at this point?
Ken Tran:
It's a totally open field so far, but right now the main leader seems to be House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Republican from Minnesota. He's the number three ranking House Republican. Because he's already in a leadership position, he has seniority, people recognize him. But there's other candidates too, such as Congressman Byron Donalds coming from Florida. He's a relatively new member of Congress, but he started to pick up steam. He's a member of the Freedom Caucus, this ultraconservative group of hard-right lawmakers. He started to pick up endorsements from people that never voted for the last speaker nominee, Jordan, namely from the Florida dedication. So Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart from Florida and Congressman Carlos Gimenez from Florida, they've both endorsed him.
Taylor Wilson:
Ken, what's the chance that acting speaker Patrick McHenry could just be empowered as the speaker going forward?
Ken Tran:
So we've seen those talks happen last week. Those talks ultimately broke down again behind a separate closed door meeting with House of Republicans. If by the end of this week we don't have a speaker, we could see the frustrations within the conference boil over and have lawmakers such as either a Republican from Ohio, Dave Joyce, or a Republican from Pennsylvania, Mike Kelly, introduce their resolutions, which they already have to empower McHenry as speaker. That move is almost certainly going to require Democratic support and we don't know yet whether or not Democrats are willing to give their vote for free or whether or not they'll seek any concessions. We'll just have to see.
Taylor Wilson:
All right, Ken Tran, I'm sure we'll be hearing from you again here in the coming days. Thank you, Ken.
Ken Tran:
Thank you.
Taylor Wilson:
Of the candidates running for speaker, only two voted to certify the 2020 election, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Congressman Austin Scott. You can read more with a link in today's show notes.
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The world's oldest known dog has died at the age of 31. Guinness World Records reported that Bobi lived with his human family in a rural Portuguese village and died over the weekend. Bobi was a purebred Rafeiro do Alentejo, a farm and watchdog breed known for its confidence and calm demeanor, according to the American Kennel Club. Guinness says the average lifespan for that breed is 12 to 14 years. Not only was Bobi the world's oldest living dog, he was also the oldest known to have ever lived. The previous record holder was Bluey, an Australian cattle dog, born in 1910, who lived to be 29.
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And today is United Nations Day, a day to recognize the founding of the UN in 1945. The UN was created in the wake of World War II with a mission to maintain international peace and security. Today, there are around a dozen or so major conflicts happening around the world. The war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas War are just two of them.
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Thanks for listening to 5 Things. You can find us seven mornings a week on whatever your favorite podcast app is, and if you have any comments, you can reach us at [email protected]. I'm Taylor Wilson, back tomorrow with more of 5 Things from USA Today.
